The Geography Of Syria's Civil War
Updated: 12:57pm UK, Friday 20 July 2012
The capture of Syrian border posts by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) is another clear sign that the Assad government is losing control of the country.
Four border posts fell, two on the crossings into Turkey, two going into Iraq. These symbols of power may change hands again over the next few days but the trajectory of the Syrian conflict is clear.
The attacks in Damascus, the bombing in the capital, and now the situation on the borders all tell us that President Assad’s authority is crumbling, as is the ability of his forces to hold or even safeguard strategic positions.
Strategically, the permanent loss of the customs posts on the Turkish border would most worry the Government. If the FSA militias can hold a border crossing, they can begin to create a safe zone, probably in the Idlib province. That would give it a supply route, a training ground, and a space from which to launch an advance south.
There does appear to be such a plan and the fighting in the capital has stretched the Government forces to such an extent that it appears the opposition has the momentum to increase its recent gains.
The FSA holds small areas in the countryside around the cities of Idlib and Aleppo in the north and to the west of the coastal region around Latakia, an Alawite stronghold (the Assad family are from the minority Alawite sect of Islam). Heading further south the FSA has the ability to cut the main highway towards the capital, and is in control of some districts in the cities of Hama and Homs.
It seems unlikely that in the shorter term the FSA can hold its gains in the capital, but it does have a tenuous grip on some outer suburbs.
Further south from the capital is a hilly region dominated by the Druze, another Syrian minority group. The fighting has largely bypassed the Druze areas as the bulk of fighters in the various militia which make up the FSA are from the Sunni majority.
On the southern border is the town of Deraa which is a hot bed of activism. Parts of the town have FSA units as does the countryside.
Over to the east, and the Iraq border, there is FSA activity, but not in the Kurdish areas. The majority of Kurds, like the Druze are watching to see how the civil war pans out and hoping they do not need to get involved.
Unless there is some sort of "clean", albeit violent, end to the current situation the Kurds and Druze may get dragged in.
The leaders of both communities have mixed feelings about the uprising. Neither groups were ardent supporters of the Assad government but many people in Syria’s minority groups feel that the secular government which has dominated the country for decades did safeguard their rights.
If a pluralistic open democracy emerges from the wreckage of Syria, they have little to fear, if a Sunni Islamist government rises, the minorities would fear for their long-term futures.
In neighbouring Lebanon, Druze and Christian militia were among those who fought the civil war. Those militias still exist in case they need to be activated, the Syrian minority groups will also have contingency plans.
