Syria: Hands Are Tied At The UN
Updated: 5:42pm UK, Friday 13 July 2012
There are many pairs of wringing hands at the United Nations Security Council in New York, but those hands are tied.
The UK, France, America and Germany want to pass a tough new resolution which would force President Assad to comply with special envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan or face sanctions under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
The pressure to act is particularly intense, given the latest reports of the massacre of over 100 people in the village of Tremseh.
But Russia, as it has done many times before on Syria, has declared it will veto any Chapter VII resolution, calling such measures a "red line" that cannot even be negotiated. China agrees.
This, despite a plea from Mr Annan on Wednesday to send a clear message to President Bashar al Assad that there will be consequences if he does not work to end the conflict in his country.
It is not a new or surprising Russian position.
After 108 civilians were massacred in Houla in May, Moscow agreed to a non-binding statement condemning the violence, but refused to consider a resolution.
When 78 died in similar circumstance in Qubeir in June, just before a well-publicised visit by Mr Annan to New York, Russia’s ambassador to the UN repeated a familiar mantra: "The facts are unclear, the Syrian government has the right to fight back against armed terrorists, the solution to the conflict should be a Syrian-led process."
Moscow is protecting a dearly held principle that the UN Security Council does not have the right to interfere in the affairs of a sovereign nation.
In part, this stubborn stance is to do with Libya.
Russia allowed a Chapter VII resolution through and felt it was unfairly used to pave the way for military action to stop the violence there.
But there are practical and strategic interests at play here too.
Russia has important assets to protect in Syria - a naval base, an important regional ally and a lucrative arms trade.
All this makes Western allies in New York increasingly frustrated.
They have continued to hope Russia will eventually see that Syria will implode, taking the region with it, and that such an event is in nobody’s best interests.
That hasn’t happened yet, and so all hopes are pinned on the existing UK-drafted resolution.
As well as threatening sanctions, the text extends the mission of the UN observers in Syria, whose current mandate runs out on July 20.
It is a mission Russia is extremely keen to keep going, in part, Western allies suspect, because its presence in Syria buys President Assad time to tighten his grip on power or engineer a safe exit.
Some diplomats will be using this as leverage today as meetings go on behind the scenes in New York.
The US, for example, has already implied it may not support the renewal of UNSMIS, whose staff are currently confined to hotels, if the resolution doing so does not include Chapter VII measures.
The UK and its friends on the council know the risk of failure is high and the stakes are even higher.
A Russian veto will cement the widely held opinion that the council is toothless and has failed in its duty to protect the Syrian people – but now, especially in the light of this latest reported massacre, they feel they have no choice but to try.
